Postseason Up For Grabs In UMass Regular Season Finale
There are still plenty of scenarios to play out, but if UMass wants to reach the MAC Tournament, it likely needs to beat Ohio tonight.
UMass closes the regular season Tuesday night knowing exactly what is at stake…well kind of.
The Minutemen host Ohio at 7 p.m. (ESPN+) inside the Mullins Center, with the final spot in the MAC Conference Tournament still within reach.
At 15-15 overall and 6-11 in league play, UMass sits one game behind Buffalo and Central Michigan for eighth place. Only the top eight teams advance to Cleveland next week.
Six teams (Miami-Ohio, Akron, Kent State, Toledo, Ohio and Bowling Green) have already secured spots, leaving two tournament bids still unsettled entering the final stretch. Crazy things can happen, but in reality, this is a race between four teams for two spots.
Buffalo and Central Michigan each sit at 6-10 with two games remaining with UMass at 6-11 with just tonight’s game left and Ball State at 5-11 with two to play.
Central Michigan and Ball State face each other later this week, guaranteeing one of them will take a loss. That head-to-head matchup prevents both from running the table.
For UMass, the math is relatively simple.
Win, and the Minutemen finish 7-11.
Lose, and they will need significant help.
Even with a victory, UMass still needs results elsewhere to break its way.
The cleanest path for UMass is this: beat Ohio and have at least one of Buffalo or Central Michigan drop a game. If that happens, the Minutemen remain firmly in the race entering the final days of the regular season.
The key for UMass is to avoid getting caught behind two teams that surge to eight conference wins. If both Buffalo and Central Michigan win out, UMass would be left on the outside regardless of Tuesday’s result. Any stumble by either team keeps the door open.
Like most tiebreaker systems, the MAC’s starts simple enough, but gets more complicated as you go. It would appear that UMass would have the edge were it to find itself in a three-team tie with Buffalo and Central Michigan since its combined record within that group would be 2-1 while Buffalo would be 1-2 and Central Michigan 1-1.
From the MAC Conference website:
Between TWO teams:
A. Head-to-head competition
B. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played)
C. Coin flip
* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500).
For MULTIPLE (3 or more) team ties
E. Total won-lost record of games played among the tied teams
F. Two (2)-team tie-breaker procedure goes into effect (refer to A).
NOTE: Once a three-team tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker will go into effect.
* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500)
The focus, though, should remain inside the Mullins Center.
Ohio beat UMass 86-83 on Jan. 6. Senior forward Daniel Hankins-Sanford led the Minutemen in that game with 16 points and nine rebounds.
The Bobcats enter at 15-14 overall and 9-7 in the MAC after falling 79-67 to Toledo on Saturday. Jackson Paveletzke leads Ohio with 16.5 points and 5.1 assists per game, ranking fourth in the conference in assists. Aidan Hadawy adds 14.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest, while Javan Simmons averages 14.3 points and 5.6 rebounds.
UMass is coming off an 81-62 loss at Bowling Green in which it built a 14-point first-half lead before being outscored 53-25 after halftime. Leonardo Bettiol scored 24 points on 9-of-12 shooting and added nine rebounds, four assists and three steals. Dwayne Wimbley Jr. made his first-career start and finished with a career-high 10 points.
Bettiol has been one of the league’s most efficient players all season. He leads the MAC in field goal percentage at 60.1 percent and ranks sixth in scoring at 17.8 points per game. Marcus Banks Jr. averages 16.4 points, while Hankins-Sanford and K’Jei Parker each average in double figures.
The margins have been razor thin throughout conference play. UMass’ 17 MAC games have been decided by a combined 87 points. Nine have been decided by three points or fewer.
The Minutemen have essentially zero margin for error at this point. Beat Ohio, extend the season’s life and wait on help elsewhere. Lose, and the race for Cleveland likely ends in Amherst.
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