The math of Friday night is not complicated.
UConn scores 35.7 points a game and averages 449.2 yards of offense. UMass has built its season around a defense that travels, bends and keeps the Minutemen in games regardless of the offense. Something has to give at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field (7:02 p.m., CBS Sports Network), in the 79th meeting between the programs and the first since UConn’s 47-42 win last November.
The rest gap is real. UConn is 3-3 and coming off its bye, last seen beating Temple 34-20 on October 10. UMass is on a short week after the overtime loss at Buffalo with injury concerns.
Start With The QB
For UConn, everything in its offense runs through QB Kalieb Osborne, who carries a 91.0 PFF overall grade with an 86.9 passing grade and an 82.7 rushing grade. UConn throws for 256.5 yards a game at 8.8 yards an attempt and has thrown only three interceptions on 175 attempts.
Osborne protects the ball, extends plays and has a run game behind him that uses a rotation instead of a bell cow. RB Cyncir Bowers grades 81.0 overall with an 88.0 rushing grade and RB Kenji Christian grades 79.4, while RB Trey Cornist ran for 114 yards on seven carries against Temple, with runs of 51 and 41. UConn runs for 192.7 yards a game at 5.3 a carry and has scored 17 of its 28 touchdowns on the ground.
The Crack Is Protection
For all of that, UConn has allowed 17 sacks in six games and PFF grades its pass blocking at 53.5. The tackles are the soft spot, Ty Chan at 56.2 and Fred Johnson at 45.5. That is the door for a UMass pass rush that produced 16 pressures and four sacks at Buffalo. If UMass is going to have a chance, it needs to get pressure.
The Corners Get Their Test
Isaiah Reed and TJ Magee just erased Buffalo’s receivers. Reed graded 81.5 and allowed one catch on six targets. Magee graded 78.3 with an interception.
UConn presents a different problem. The Huskies’ team receiving grade is 80.3 and four WRs grade within two points of each other: Shamar Porter at 73.6, Javon Brown at 71.9, Ryder Treadway at 71.4 and JD Willoughby at 71.3. There is no best option to take away, and Raymond Liggins III owns the best receiving grade on the team at 84.1, albeit on only 28 snaps.
The inside matchup may flip in UMass’ favor. Buffalo’s TE beat the Minutemen for both touchdowns and S Zeraun Daniel graded 57.0. UConn’s most-used TE, Xavier Watson, grades 59.8 on 241 snaps, the lowest mark among its regular pass catchers, with Matt Ragan the better-graded option at 70.8.
UMass’ QB Answer Comes Friday
Joe Harasymiak has not announced who will start at quarterback yet.
If healthy, Pop Watson will certainly get the nod. If not, it figures to be Logan Inagawa for the second straight week.
Inagawa graded a respectable 77.9 in his first start at Buffalo, and the staff has a plan for each of them.
Watson’s playmaking ability alone would give the Minutemen a giant boost if he’s able to go, but if he’s not, Harasymiak and offensive coordinator Max Warner will have a plan for Inagawa as well.
Where UMass Can Move It
UConn’s defense grades 67.4 overall and its coverage grade of 50.7 is the weakest unit grade on either roster.
CB Saxton Suchanic has played a team-high 404 snaps and carries a 49.0 coverage grade, and Jayden Price is at 55.1. That is where opposing offenses have aimed, and whoever plays quarterback for UMass will get chances outside if the line gives him time.
It Could Come Down To A Kick
The usually reliable Derek Morris missed two field goals against Buffalo and another that was wiped out by a penalty. He also drilled a 53-yarder that could have been the winner.
Harasymiak proved last week that he’s got real faith in Morris regardless of the circumstances and we’d expect the same against UConn if the opportunity presents itself.
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