UMass will try to snap a two-game losing streak Saturday against a Buffalo team that has found success running the football and playing physical defense.
The Minutemen (4-2, 1-2 MAC) will face the Bulls (3-3, 1-1) at Broadview Stadium in Buffalo for a 1 p.m. kickoff on ESPN+, with the Flagship Cup on the line for the second time.
Buffalo enters the matchup following a 23-8 road victory over Toledo, its most impressive result of the season. The Bulls previously lost to Western Michigan, 20-17, after opening the season with two wins and two losses in nonconference play.
UMass, meanwhile, is looking to rebound from a 20-19 loss to Miami (Ohio) that followed a 38-14 defeat against Eastern Michigan.
Buffalo At A Glance
Record: 3-3 overall, 1-1 MAC
Head coach: Pete Lembo, third season
Offensive coordinator: Tony Tokarz
Defensive coordinator: Brian Dougherty
Scoring offense: 20.8 points per game
Scoring defense: 26.8 points per game
Total offense: 319.8 yards per game
Rushing offense: 157.2 yards per game
Passing offense: 162.6 yards per game
Buffalo Offense: Burch Leading The Way
The biggest concern for UMass defensively is running back Messiah Burch, who has emerged as the centerpiece of Buffalo’s offense.
Burch has rushed for more than 100 yards in three consecutive games, totaling 389 yards during that stretch. He ran for 137 yards and a touchdown against Toledo after gaining 146 yards against Robert Morris.
His 79.4 PFF rushing grade reflects his recent production.
Burch’s emergence has been particularly important with Buffalo adjusting to a quarterback change.
Jason Wright has taken over for injured starter Elijah Holmes and has completed 52 percent of his passes over his last three starts while averaging approximately 160 passing yards per game.
Wright has also shown the ability to contribute on the ground. He rushed for 95 yards against Robert Morris and ran for a touchdown against Toledo.
But, his 65.2 PFF passing grade since taking over trails the 82.1 mark Holmes earned before his injury.
Buffalo’s leading receiving threat is Chance Morrow, who has 34 receptions for 414 yards and six touchdowns. The fifth-year receiver has already exceeded his combined production from his previous three seasons with the program.
The Bulls are thin behind Morrow. Preseason All-MAC selection Jasaiah Gathings, who started the opener, does not appear on the two-deep in this week’s game notes, and injury reports list Bobby Mays and Terrell Richards as Out with Alvin Jones III and Jeremiah Watkins Questionable. Springfield, Mass., native Dwayne Early Jr., who was one of Pop Watson’s receivers at Springfield Central High School, and Patrick Clacks III are listed as the other starters.
The Bulls have also increased their use of tight ends. Clint Walker and Trevor Wilson have combined for 18 receptions, more than Buffalo’s tight ends recorded in either of the previous two full seasons.
Strength vs. Strength
Buffalo’s rushing attack will face a UMass defense allowing just 109.3 rushing yards per game, the second-best mark in the MAC and 32nd nationally entering the week.
Linebacker Timmy Hinspeter has been one of the Minutemen’s most effective defenders, earning an 89.7 overall PFF grade and an 88.0 grade against the run.
The challenge will be containing Burch while limiting the additional rushing opportunities Wright creates.
UMass also has potential advantages along the defensive front.
Buffalo offensive tackle Nathan Natoli has a 26.2 PFF pass-blocking grade, while guard Thomas Barr has graded at 41.3. Those numbers suggest opportunities for UMass to pressure Wright, particularly with Joshua Nobles and Andrew DePaepe rushing off the edge.
Nobles has generated 15 pressures this season, while DePaepe has 13.
The Minutemen have also been effective at creating turnovers, ranking among the national leaders with 11 takeaways through six games. Buffalo has improved its ball security, however, going two straight games without a turnover after committing nine during its first four contests.
Jahmad Harmon has been particularly effective in coverage, recording three interceptions while allowing a 28.2 passer rating when targeted, according to PFF.
One concern for UMass is tackling. William DePaepe has missed 40 percent of his tackle attempts, per PFF, while several other regular contributors have struggled in that category.
Against Burch, missed tackles could turn manageable gains into significant plays.
Buffalo Difficult To Run Against
Buffalo’s defensive identity begins with stopping the run.
The Bulls have allowed only one individual 100-yard rushing performance this season, with Penn State’s Quinton Martin reaching exactly 100 yards. In their first two MAC games, Buffalo held Western Michigan to 115 rushing yards and Toledo to 110.
Linebackers Zach Bergmann and Stevie Bracey have been central to that success, earning PFF run-defense grades of 86.1 and 85.6, respectively.
That presents a difficult matchup for a UMass offensive line whose five starters all carry run-blocking grades below 59.
Curtis Kimmons, who has earned an 84.1 PFF rushing grade, could be especially important if healthy enough to play. Kimmons was limited by an injury against Miami, and his availability will influence how UMass approaches Buffalo’s defensive front.
The Bulls can also generate pressure on passing downs.
Edge defender Logan Goodwin has produced 21 pressures and an 87.8 PFF pass-rush grade.
UMass has been more effective in pass protection than run blocking, with Peyton Miller earning an 81.8 pass-blocking grade and Brock Taylor grading at 75.6.
That matchup could be critical if the Minutemen need to rely more heavily on the passing game.
Where UMass Can Attack
Despite Buffalo’s success against the run, its coverage numbers suggest opportunities for UMass.
Safety John Keough has allowed three touchdown passes and a 152.9 passer rating when targeted, according to PFF. Nickel SaVeon Brown has allowed opponents to complete 81.3 percent of passes thrown in his direction.
They figure to create potential opportunities for UMass to move the football through the air, although exploiting them will come down to protection and the quarterback’s execution.
Logan Inagawa is coming off a relief appearance against Miami in which he helped lead a 91-yard touchdown drive that nearly gave the Minutemen a victory. His play was extremely encouraging, albeit it was an equally extremely small sample size, with just 22 snaps.
With Pop Watson and Aedan McCarthy both considered unlikely to play as of the start of the week, Inagawa and Ty McCutcheon have been preparing for larger roles.
When healthy, the Minutemen have plenty of productive receiving options in T.Y Harding and Joseph Griffin along with the emergence of Jabari Lewis and tight end Max Dowling, who has caught a touchdown pass in three consecutive games.
But again, that’s when healthy. Harding, Griffin and Lewis were all dealing with varying levels of injuries this week.
Still, finding opportunities through the air against Buffalo’s coverage could be pivotal if the Bulls succeed in limiting UMass on the ground.
Special Teams And Turnovers
Both teams have potential advantages in the kicking game.
Buffalo punter Ethan Stumpf leads the MAC with an average of approximately 46.8 yards per punt, including a season-long 72-yarder against Western Michigan.
UMass counters with kicker Derek Morris, who set a program record with a 56-yard field goal against Miami. Morris has made three field goals from at least 50 yards this season.
The Minutemen have also been dangerous returning punts, averaging 29.8 yards per return entering the week.
Turnovers could be another deciding factor.
Buffalo has protected the ball considerably better during conference play, while UMass has consistently created opportunities with its defense. If the Minutemen can force Wright into difficult passing situations and capitalize on Buffalo’s offensive-line vulnerabilities, they could disrupt the Bulls’ recent offensive improvement.
Three Keys For UMass
1. Contain Messiah Burch
Buffalo has increasingly leaned on its running game, and preventing Burch from extending his streak of 100-yard performances would put more responsibility on Wright.
2. Find Success Through The Air
Buffalo’s run defense is formidable, but the individual coverage grades suggest UMass could have opportunities in the passing game. Protecting the quarterback and identifying favorable matchups will be essential.
3. Win The Pressure & Turnover Battles
Buffalo’s offensive line has struggled in pass protection at certain positions, while UMass has excelled at creating takeaways. Forcing Wright into obvious passing situations could give the Minutemen their best opportunities to change the game.
Saturday’s matchup presents a test of whether UMass can maintain its defensive success against the run while finding enough offensive production to overcome its injury problems.
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