A Quick Primer, Since This Is New Here
Pro Football Focus is a sports analytics company that provides detailed analysis of the NFL and NCAA Football. PFF grades every player on every snap on a 0-100 scale. The rough tiers: 90 and above is elite, 80s are good, 70s are above average, 60s are average, and anything under 60 is below average or worse.
A couple things to know before the numbers.
First, PFF grades process, not results. An offensive lineman can grade well on a play that goes nowhere and poorly on a touchdown, because the grade asks whether he did his job, not whether the play worked. In that sense, it is much different than another popular analytics stat, EPA (Expected Points Added), which focuses solely on whether the team is in better or worse shape after every play.
Second, the graders don’t know the play call, so there’s judgment in every number, and small samples are noisy. I’ll flag those when they come up.
And one more, because it matters this week: sometimes the process grade and the result genuinely diverge, and you should decide for yourself what matters most.
All grades below are from PFF’s 2026 season data through Week 6.
UMass Defense Has Dipped
Here are UMass’s overall defensive grades by game: Rutgers: 80.0, Sacred Heart: 81.6, Stonehill: 87.8, Sacramento St.: 76.6, and then Eastern Michigan: 58.1 and Miami-Ohio: 63.1. The average across the 4-0 start was 81.5. Across the two losses it’s 60.6.
The Eastern Michigan game was as bad as the number says. A 58.1 team grade with 38 points allowed doesn’t need much further translation. Run defense, tackling, and coverage all graded in the 50s, and the scoreboard agreed.
The Miami game is where you have to watch the tape along with the spreadsheet. PFF graded the defense 63.1. The defense held Miami to 20 points and allowed just six after the first quarter, forcing punts on five consecutive true possessions and making a goal-line stand to force a field goal late in the third quarter. Anyone in the stadium would tell you that unit played winning football.
Both things are true, and the gap is instructive about what the grades do and don’t capture.
The 63.1 reflects a defense that was sloppy between the 20s: a 59.9 tackling grade, a 53.8 run-defense grade dragged down by the reverse touchdown and Miami quarterback Caleb Heavner’s read-option runs in the first quarter.
But PFF grades every snap equally, and doesn’t give bonus points for the snaps that matter most. The red-zone stand, the fourth-quarter stops, the five straight forced punts: those were high-leverage execution, but the grade treats them like any other series.
So the refined version of the story: the defense collapsed at Eastern Michigan, then played a bend-don’t-break game against Miami that the grade undersells. The two-week trend is still down, but Saturday was a step back toward respectability, not a second collapse.
Pop Watson Matters
The 4-0 start averaged 72.0 and the offense graded at 71.4 in the loss to Eastern Michigan, actually better than the Minutemen’s performance in the opening win over Rutgers.
Pop Watson’s individual game grades were 86.2, 92.7, 54.1, 83.1, 72.5.
Not surprisingly, the offense fell all of the way to 58.8 in Watson’s absence against Miami. Freshman quarterback Aedan McCarthy’s first start graded 50.0. The offense around the quarterback graded about the same as it had all year. The quarterback did not.
That’s actually encouraging for the second half, depending on health. There’s no reason to believe the offense won’t return to a productive level when Watson returns.
RBs Have Covered Up Run Game Issues
UMass ran for just 65 yards against Miami and never seemed to be able to dominate up front. PFF says UMass hasn’t dominated up front much this year outside of the Stonehill game.
The offensive line’s run-blocking grades by game: Rutgers: 48.6, Sacred Heart: 61.0, Stonehill: 83.2, Sacramento St.: 56.4, Eastern Michigan: 49.3, Miami: 39.2.
So how has UMass had any success in the running game? Largely because Curtis Kimmons and Elijah Faulkner kept producing anyway.
Kimmons’ rushing grades by game have been 71.5, 62.5, 72.4, 78.1, 73.9, 72.4 while Faulkner’s are 69.8, 70.2, 74.8, 67.1, 46.9 and 63.1.
That is remarkable consistency (outside of Faulkner’s game against Eastern Michigan) behind consistently poor blocking. The backs weren’t the problem in September and they aren’t the problem now. The problem is the same as it was in Week 1, except the backs haven’t been able to overcome it the last two weeks.
Beware Of The Small Sample
It took barely six minutes of gametime against Miami for third-string quarterback Logan Inagawa to become a fan favorite.
Inagawa’s 89.3 overall against Miami and 92.0 passing grade are eye-popping, but not nearly as impressive as his near-heroics in the final minutes last Saturday.
But small samples should be taken with caution. 13 good snaps don’t make a quarterback, and eight bad ones didn’t unmake him either. If he plays against Buffalo, the number to watch isn’t whether he’s above 87 again. It’s whether the grade stays above 80 once he has real volume. That’s when it starts meaning something.
Quick Look Ahead To Buffalo
Inagawa’s ability to throw could be critical this weekend.
Buffalo’s run defense is legit. Linebackers Zach Bergmann (86.1) and Stevie Bracey (85.6) grade among the best run defenders UMass has faced, which matches the tape.
But Buffalo’s coverage has specific holes. Safety John Keough has allowed three touchdowns and a 152.9 passer rating in coverage, and nickel SaVeon Brown is allowing 81.3 percent completions. Whoever plays quarterback for UMass should be throwing at those two. If the Minutemen have a full arsenal of receivers, Joe Griffin Jr., T.Y. Harding and Jabari Lewis could have huge impacts.
But again, that’s IF they are available and IF the Minutemen can get them the ball.
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Great stuff as always, Christian.